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Post by seanx on Mar 7, 2008 18:47:56 GMT -5
who's been saying this for almost a year now?.......ummmmm.....me
of course, according to Big Jim, everything is just fine and flowing smooth with our economy (oh yeah, he listens to satellite radio and is "in the know")...........
Goldman Sachs: Oil May Reach $200 a Barrel
Steve Gelsi
MarketWatch
March 7, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a “major disruption.”
Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel — significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if “normalized” trends return to the marketplace.
With the dollar’s fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.
Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its “super-spike” oil theory.
“We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view,” the analysts said. “In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession.”
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Post by HBGOnline on Mar 8, 2008 7:56:53 GMT -5
Yes in 4 years oil could be at $200.00. As the report also stated it could be at $60.00 too.
Currently hedge funds and private equity are driving oil prices up. They are pulling billions from the stock market and dumping into commodities. (Oil, grain, etc.) If you think oil has gone up, research the historical highs just reached in soy, corn and other grains. These prices will have a much greater effect on our economy than a barrel of oil.
Last weeks Dept of Energy reports showed the largest build up in crude inventories in over 5 years for this time of year. Basically that means we are using less than what is being produced.
Perhaps if our politicians would stop having worthless press grabbing hearings on steriods and othe stupid shit and would focus on opening up ANWR, West and Gulf Coast's of our county for drilling. They could also stop lying about "green fuels" and pass laws that would allow the construction of nuke plants and gas refineries to be built.
Quick story. There is a Bio Fuels company in our area that is a customer for the day job company. When I stopped in they stated that soon they will be closing down because PA wasn't serious about Bio Fuels. I asked what he meant. Production of Bio Fuels is expensive and if sold on the market would be MORE expensive than the cost of gas. So state and federal goverments kick in payments for each gallon produced. PA kicks in "only" 15 cents per gallon. However the midwest states kick in close to $1.50 per gallon.
He then asked if I could believe that. Without thinking, the words "I don't think any of my tax dollars should go to such a program" freely flowed from my mouth. After a few tense seconds of silence our meeting ended.
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Post by freddyv on Mar 8, 2008 9:43:06 GMT -5
If you think oil has gone up, research the historical highs just reached in soy, corn and other grains. Last weeks Dept of Energy reports showed the largest build up in crude inventories in over 5 years for this time of year. Basically that means we are using less than what is being produced. the price of soy, corn, and other grains is up because of inflation. same goes for oil and pretty much every other consumable. typically, when supply outweighs demand, prices go down. this relationship doesn't hold true when inflation is rampant. this is why the price of oil is still way up despite the fact that we are using less than what is being produced, as you quoted. it all comes down to monetary policy. as I've posted in other threads, the price of oil has remained relatively flat when compared to the price of gold. it all becomes pretty obvious once you realize the impact of our monetary policy on prices/our economy. F the Fed! |
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Post by seanx on Mar 8, 2008 13:17:15 GMT -5
.....or how about this great idea: bring back the electric cars that could go 300 miles on a charged battery that was plugged into any electrical outlet..................who gives a shit about oil and biofuels? you keep spouting ignorance on the topic.............our economy is doing great?..........effing biofuels (if you actually read any of the other posts in here about a year ago we said that biofuels were not the answer and actually used more oil to produce than just using crude oil as fuel).....hell, even mickulz knows that one......
I agree with freddy that inflation is why oil prices have gone up...........but they have still gone up, right?............and unless some policies change, I'm not saying oil is going to be 200 bucks a barrel in 4 years.....I'm saying within 1-2 years.......you thought I was nuts about the 100 buck a barrel prediction earlier.........
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Post by freddyv on Mar 10, 2008 12:02:07 GMT -5
looks like no relief in sight...
Reuters
Oil spike to last through 2008: OPEC president
Monday March 10, 4:47 am ET
ALGIERS (Reuters) - Oil prices will stay at current high levels for the rest of this year due to speculation and geopolitical tensions, Algerian state media on Monday reported OPEC President Chakib Khelil as saying.
Prices could retreat in 2009 with a recovery of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets following the election of a new U.S. president, and as fundamentals reassert themselves as major market forces, he was reported as saying by government newspaper El Moudjahid and state news agency APS.
"Just like the current surge in oil markets, the (world economic) crisis, will last until the end of the year," he was quoted as saying by El Moudjahid.
"The oil market will stay above $100 during the current financial year, according to the assessment of Mr Khelil," APS said in a report on his remarks to Algerian reporters on Sunday.
It was not immediately clear which fiscal year APS was referring to.
Khelil, who is also Algerian Energy and Mines Minister, said the factors driving the market at present included "speculation, geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Iranian nuclear affair and the crisis between Venezuela and ExxonMobil," APS reported.
The world economy could get some help with the arrival of a new U.S. president, and possibly a new economic policy, "and with this new situation it is very probable that the dollar will start to recover and thus permit a readjustment of the (oil) market," El Moudjahid quoted him as saying.
OPEC members meeting in Vienna last week decided to hold production flat, insisting markets were well supplied and blaming record prices on factors outside the group's control, including speculators and what Khelil called the "mismanagement" of the U.S. economy.
Speculators have piled into oil and other commodities as a hedge against the weaker dollar and inflation as the U.S. economy slows due to a credit crunch, the mortgage crisis and high energy costs.
Khelil said OPEC had left output unchanged because it wanted to assist global economic growth, El Moudjahid and APS reported.
The group made its decision in the knowledge that demand was expected to dip by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of the year and that stocks in consuming countries were at comfortable levels, Khelil said.
"If we had increased our production given all these factors, you wouldn't have been able to miss the impact on prices," he said, suggesting prices would have slid.
"We left our output unchanged so as not to disturb the market further and to help the world economy resume its momentum of growth," El Moudhajid quoted him as saying.
(Reporting by William Maclean, editing by James Jukwey)
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Post by HBGOnline on Mar 10, 2008 15:21:19 GMT -5
looks like no relief in sight... Reuters Oil spike to last through 2008: OPEC president Monday March 10, 4:47 am ET ALGIERS (Reuters) - Oil prices will stay at current high levels for the rest of this year due to speculation and geopolitical tensions, Just what I was talking about above. "Speculation" is the hedge funds and private equity pouring money into crude futures because of the present shakey stock market. They are also artificially inflating gold and other commodity prices. Just watch, once Congress gets their heads out of their asses and starts an investigation on this practice, prices will plummet! I also heard a report today that the Europeans will have a massive economical collapse around summer, early fall because they are not lowering interest rates. They keep their rates high to lower the dollar value. Except now they too are stalling and need reductions to stimulate their economy. |
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Post by freddyv on Mar 17, 2008 8:40:24 GMT -5
They are also artificially inflating gold and other commodity prices. when there is this much uncertainty in the market, people tend to invest in things like gold because they are safe bets (compared to the dollar, which has no intrinsic value). this increased demand leads to higher prices. so it's not that its price is being artificially inflated but rather the price increase is a tell-tale sign of a poor economy/inflation. now that you can add bear stearns to the list, do we really still think that the economy is doing so well? or that our monetary policy is having no impact on the sinking dollar and subsequently on the flailing economy? also, I would bet that the fact that our economy is tanking probably would heavily influence the precipitation of any potential market collapse in europe. we import/buy a lot of their crap, vacation there, etc., so if our economy is going down the toilet and people have less disposable income to spend on these luxuries, it's going to have a negative effect on the european economy. the sky isn't falling, but the fed really isn't doing us any favors. |
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